Download World metal demand : trends and prospects by John E. Tilton PDF

By John E. Tilton

In the early Nineteen Seventies, the post-World battle II growth in global steel intake got here to a halt. As time handed, it turned transparent that what many first considered a cyclical downturn used to be as an alternative a long term, titanic decline in international steel call for. during this quantity, first released in 1990, editor John E. Tilton and 4 fellow students of mineral economics examine the motives and effects of this decline and the customers for destiny development in international steel call for. This ebook can be of curiosity to scholars of industrial and environmental reviews.

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34-41. , Dennis L. Meadows, Jurgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. 1972. The Limits to Growth (New York, Universe Books). This page intentionally left blank 2 Conceptual and Methodological Issues MARIAN RADETZKI and JO HN E. TILTO N A variety of conceptual and methodological issues as well as data problems are encountered in analyzing metal demand. How these difficulties are han­ dled in a particular analysis can significantly affect the results and conclu­ sions of that analysis. This chapter explores these issues and describes how they are treated in this volume.

TILTON the beginning of this period and almost 8 percent lower at the end, he concludes that the use of tons significantly overestimates the decline in steel consumption. Humphreys (1987, p. 339) raises the same concern: A major weakness of much IU (intensity of use) analysis is that it focuses exclusively on tonnage considerations. There is nothing in the equation about changes in quality or value. This is unsatisfactory from the point of view of the economist since value is a far better measure of economic importance than quan­ tity.

Unfortunately, however, inventory data are not available for most of the less developed countries and the centrally planned countries and are incomplete even for the OECD countries. Moreover, comprehensive data are even harder to find on the stock of metal contained in inventories of fabricated and finished products. As a result, metal absorption, or the actual metal demand of final consumers, tends to exceed reported consumption when such unreported inventories are declining, whereas the opposite is true when unreported inventories are growing.

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